Trump and The Axis of Upheaval

Donald Trump’s recent return to the White House has sent shockwaves through global politics. At home, his victory has reignited debates over democracy and governance, but internationally, it has raised critical questions about America’s role in the world. One pressing issue is how his presidency intersects with the growing influence of the Axis of Upheaval—the alliance of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. This coalition isn’t just about military power; it’s a challenge to the existing world order across economic, technological, and ideological fronts. Let’s break down what this means for the future of authority using our CIA Framework—Cognitive, Institutional, and Algorithmic Authority.

Cognitive Authority: Winning the Battle of Ideas

Cognitive authority is about shaping perceptions and influencing beliefs. The Axis of Upheaval excels at this. For example:

Russia deploys disinformation campaigns to undermine Western democracies, fueling division and distrust.
China uses its vast state media apparatus to promote its governance model as a stable, efficient alternative to chaotic Western democracies.
Iran positions itself as a leader of resistance against Western imperialism, rallying support across the Middle East.

With Trump back in power, his populist rhetoric may inadvertently amplify these narratives. His disdain for traditional allies and international institutions, coupled with his "America First" ideology, aligns, at least rhetorically, with the Axis’s critique of Western hegemony.

Could Trump be drawn to their anti-establishment stance? Historically, he’s admired strongmen like Putin and Kim Jong Un, suggesting he might find common ground with the Axis’s leaders. In a world where Trump prioritizes transactional relationships, could he entertain the idea of cooperation—or even alignment—with the Axis, if it serves his short-term goals?

Institutional Authority: Undermining Global Governance

The Axis aims to weaken the institutions that have underpinned the global order since World War II, such as the United Nations and NATO. They’re building alternatives:

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has created a web of economic dependence, particularly in developing countries.
Russia backs organizations like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to rival NATO.

Trump has already shown disdain for international cooperation. During his first term, he pulled the U.S. out of major agreements like the Paris Climate Accord and questioned NATO’s relevance. If he continues this trajectory, it could accelerate the decline of Western-led institutions, leaving a vacuum that the Axis is well-positioned to fill.

Would Trump, in his quest for deals and dominance, prefer to broker agreements outside traditional frameworks? If so, he might find the Axis's parallel institutions appealing, further eroding the authority of established global governance systems.

Algorithmic Authority: The Tech Battleground

In the digital realm, the Axis is pushing for sovereignty over cyberspace. China leads the charge with its Great Firewall, showing other nations how to control internet access and suppress dissent. Russia, too, has tested isolating its internet from the global web.

But the Axis isn’t just defensive; they’re setting new rules:

China’s AI dominance—from facial recognition to predictive policing—offers a model for authoritarian control through technology.
Iran uses cyber warfare to destabilize its adversaries, targeting both infrastructure and information systems.
North Korea uses hacking, malware, and scams as a source of intelligence and government revenue.

What happens if Trump, a vocal critic of Big Tech but also a fan of deregulation, decides that these authoritarian tech models are worth emulating? During his first term, he flirted with the idea of tighter controls on social media. Could he pivot further, using tech as a tool to consolidate power and suppress dissent?

Moreover, a splintered internet—where nations control their own "digital fiefdoms"—could become the norm. This "splinternet" would erode the open internet and fragment global communication.

Would Trump Ever Join the Axis?

While it might sound far-fetched, Trump’s foreign policy has always defied convention. He could view the Axis not as adversaries but as potential allies against what he sees as a broken global system. His transactional mindset might lead him to strike deals with these nations on issues like trade, security, or even tech development, especially if it boosts his domestic standing.

For instance:

Russia could offer strategic partnerships on energy.
China might promise favorable trade terms, appealing to Trump’s focus on economic wins.
North Korea could give him another high-profile summit to claim a diplomatic victory.

Whether this means outright alignment or simply opportunistic cooperation, Trump’s unpredictable approach could blur the lines between friend and foe.

Implications for the Internet

The internet, once seen as a tool for global unity, is increasingly becoming a contested space. The Axis nations advocate for cyber sovereignty, where governments control the digital realm within their borders. Under Trump, the U.S. might edge closer to this model, abandoning its historical role as a champion of an open internet.

This could lead to:

Increased surveillance and censorship within the U.S., mirroring Axis strategies.
Tech decoupling, where U.S. companies are forced to choose between American and Axis-driven standards.
Geopolitical cyber alliances, with countries aligning their digital ecosystems based on ideological divides.

The result? A fragmented internet where collaboration and innovation suffer, and authoritarian models gain legitimacy.

A World in Flux

The Axis of Upheaval represents a profound challenge to the current global order. In the wake of Trump’s return, the U.S. might find itself not only reacting to this new reality but potentially reshaping its own role in it. As cognitive, institutional, and algorithmic authorities are contested, the future of power and governance remains uncertain.

This isn’t just about geopolitics; it’s about the systems and structures that govern our lives. Will we see a reassertion of democratic values, or is the world moving toward a more fragmented, authoritarian future?

The battle for authority has never been more critical—or more complex.