Truth is, I don't really like Barack Obama that much. It's hard for me to respect someone who will sell out their preacher so easily, reverse on important policy positions so effortlessly, and pester me with obviously phony emails. I do respect him, and there's a really big part of me that wants to see his Presidency in action, but I'm also kind of glad I am legally unable to vote for him.
I also quite respect John McCain, and am curious to see his Presidency in action. While everyone gives the Obama campaign credit for their use of the internet, I've been following and impressed with the internet work done by the McCain campaign. There are learning opportunities everywhere as this election season demonstrates a true turning point in terms of the internet's influence in politics.
The bulk of my attention tends to focus on issues of organizing and logistics. While I'm quite involved in communications, my real interest is in intelligence, and the way that web tools impact the intelligence gathering capabilities of an organization and how that impacts the day to day operations and the pursuit of strategic goals.
A flip side of that of course is the dark arts, and the world of rumour, spin, manipulation, and attacks. My research into the political use of the internet must of course include the countless rumours and attacks that circulate online. Sometimes they have elements of truth, other times they are total fantasy. Usually they tend to be quite entertaining and offer a surreal sort of gonzo-style lense onto the campaigns.
John Edwards recently announced he was pulling out of the Democratic Presidential Primary. This was in contrast to previous indications from both the candidate and one of his senior advisers, Joe Trippi that he would stay in the race until at least Super Tuesday.
Other than money, the main reason to withdraw from the race at this point would be to give a clear boost to Obama as the anti-Hillary candidate. Yet had Edwards stayed in the race he would have easily gained enough delegates that in a tight race he'd be able to have considerable influence on the final outcome.
So why would Edwards give up this potential position of being the King/Queen maker? Perhaps because Obama offered him the job of running-mate as part of an Obama/Edwards Presidential ticket.
We know Edwards is open to the job of vice-president as he ran with Kerry, and he's young enough that 8 years from now he could run again for President. I'm unaware of any serious policy conflicts between Edwards and Obama that John couldn't stomach, especially in contrast to John Kerry's mediocrity.
Illinois Senator Barack Obama on the other hand will need someone like Edwards to balance out his ticket. The Black intellectual from the North can certainly benefit from the White Southern populist. Together they could bring an incredible amount of both excitement and credibility to the Democratic hopes of sweeping Congress and the Executive Office.
Yesterday's victories by Clinton in Nevada and McCain in South Carolina have me thinking about what an election between the two would look like. I like aspects of both candidates, and each represent elements of the establishment that have not been in power for the last 8 years.
Historically the Republican who wins the South Carolina primary also wins the party's nomination. Hillary on the other hand has now won two states in a row, New Hampshire and Nevada, when the polls predicted a Barack Obama victory. Clearly both of these candidates have momentum, and will gain even more speed if Hillary can pull off another upset in South Carolina, and if McCain place higher than Giuliani in Florida.
If this is going to be an election about change, it's interesting to see establishment candidates emerge who can both represent reform and also protect the status-quo. The balance between the need to seduce an electorate fed up with beltway bullshit, yet protect the real power that owns and runs the country.
Mike Huckabee, with the help of Chuck Norris, has been able to defeat Mitt Romney who out spent him by a factor of 20! Some estimates put Romney's Iowa expenditures at $10,000 per vote.
Barack Obama, with the help of Obama Girl, has been able to defeat Billary who admittedly had low expectations for Iowa to begin with. It's also worth noting that John Edwards has been able to stay in the race, in no small part due to his sophisticated Internet operation.
Of course I'm not suggesting that literally the videos I cite above are responsible for the victories. Rather the candidates who won did so against the odds and the Internet played an important role in that victory.
Which brings me to the story many journalists are missing this morning, which is Ron Paul. His results in Iowa may seem small compared to the victors, yet 10 and 11 percent is actually quite impressive for the congressman from Texas.
Ron Paul is running the most successful Internet campaign of any candidate because he and his campaign team make no effort to control their online activity. What shocks most journalists and political consultants is the way in which the Ron Paul campaign is autonomous and spontaneous.
The $20 million dollars raised in the last quarter of 2007 will go along way to keeping Congressman Paul in the race. He may not win, but he will affect the process as a whole.
Today, after Iowa, it's clear that there is great sentiment for Change. Huckabee, Obama, Paul, all are candidates that campaign from the outside, call for change, and embody the Internet's President.
Mind you, don't count out Billary and John McCain. The former has money and a machine that can keep them competitive right till the end. McCain has also been using the Internet quite effectively to offest his fundraising problems. He may easily win New Hampshire now that Romney is on the ropes.
For the record, I like aspects of all these candidates. I'm loving this election, and am looking forward to it getting strange, weird, and totally out of control!
